Narrative Stickiness

An interesting post on "narrative stickiness"—getting attached to a consensual media narrative despite facts pointing to a different conclusion—from Open Left.

Just prior to the debate In Austin last night I spoke with several reporters about their presidential primary reporting. Collectively, their answers reveal a powerful force in political reporting: Narrative Stickiness.
…

They seem to like Obama and his campaign. They are impressed at the quality of the campaign. They can sense the drama of the November campaign.

Still, this doesn't fit the narrative they set out to write. They believed they were writing the melodrama of a Clinton candidacy. And they are a bit frustrated that someone is changing their ending.
…
When narrative stickiness is working against a cause or candidate we support, it is never enough to challenge it with facts. We need to recognize that. First, we'll need to make the illogic transparent. Over and over and over again. Then we'll have to make the "new" ending seem like the media's idea.

Imagine a child who's heard the same bedtime story a hundred times. On reading 101, the parent changes the ending. The child will resist that, and demand a return to the story she knows so well. That's narrative stickiness. It probably applies to every one of us. It's just a great deal more visible in those telling stories to millions of Americans every day. 

A Date With Oscar

Celebs prepare for Oscar night with extreme body sculpting. Who knew?

Choice cut from the Daily Mail:

Mink Eyelashes, Cleavage Buffing, Underarm Botox — How the Stars are Preparing for the Oscars

…
On the eve of a recent Oscars, one TV star decided she was less than thrilled with her designer gown - or rather the way she looked in it.

It seems there was a tiny bump of fat which stuck out over the back of her dress. Rather than change her outfit, she dialled Manhattan dermatologist Dr Patricia Wexler, who says "it was easier to do a little liposuction than to fix the dress."

With liposuction treatment often taking only a day, Dr Wexler admits this is not uncommon: "I have had designers demanding liposuction for an actress who didn't look as good in their gown as they wanted her to.

"One designer rang ten days before the Oscars complaining that it was impossible to change the dress. It was a really low-back dress and the star's waistline wasn't smooth enough. The dress required this long, elongated waist.

"I did the lipo and by Oscar night she looked great."

Wow.

She's Come Undone

Whew! What a truckload of shit to unpack there. She's referring to mailers the Obama campaign has been circulating in Ohio which are critical of her plan. Most of this has been discussed ad nauseum throughout the campaign, by the way, so the anger seems a little...disingenuous.

My favorite line: "And then use tactics right out of Karl Rove's playbook." Well. Pot meet kettle. This from the woman whose campaign used race baiting tactics leading up to South Carolina. This from the woman whose campaign distributed mailers falsely accusing Obama of being weak on women's issues. (He's not. He's got very high ratings from women's rights organizations and a strong record.) This from the woman whose entire campaign strategy aped Rove's micro-targeting 50%+1 silliness.

My second favorite line: "Since when do Democrats attack one another on Universal Health Care?" Um...since you went after Obama on his plan, what, a mere 5 days ago at the last debate. (For more commentary and for the Obama campaign's rapid response to the "Since when" charge, head on over to The Field.)

Pakistan's Political Portent

A somewhat heartening article on the waning political power of Islamist groups. 

Choice cut:

Islam at the Ballot Box
Pakistan's election has been portrayed by the Western media as a defeat for President Pervez Musharraf. The real losers were the Islamist parties.

The latest analysis of the results shows that the parties linked, or at least sympathetic, to the Taliban and al Qaeda saw their share of the votes slashed to about 3% from almost 11% in the last general election a few years ago. The largest coalition of the Islamist parties, the United Assembly for Action (MMA), lost control of the Northwest Frontier Province -- the only one of Pakistan's four provinces it governed. The winner in the province is the avowedly secularist National Awami Party.

Nueva Alemania

Here's an odd story about a hill town in Paraguay called New Germany, a failed Nazi colony where Nazi doctor Josef Mengele (the "Angel of Death") may have spent time after fleeing Germany. 

Excerpt:

New Germany would have been Mengele's kind of town. It was founded in the 1880s by Elisabeth Nietzsche (sister of Friedrich) and her husband, the noted anti-Semite Bernhard Förster. This couple had tried to whip their countrymen into a Jew-hating frenzy, but apparently not even 19th-century Germans were anti-Semitic enough for them. Disgusted, the couple packed off to Paraguay with a few other families and tried to establish a pure Aryan colony, a place to preserve the master race.

The colony failed utterly, ravaged within two years by parasites and the unfortunate realization that the Aryan volunteers' European farming experience hadn't prepared them to grow the local manioc and yerba mate any more than it had taught them to ranch llamas or stalk yaks. The anti-Semitic colonists came to hate the Försters, and began to wonder whether they had picked the wrong Jew-hating loons to follow into the jungle. Those who didn’t die of lockjaw or hunger left; a few stayed, and decades later, their children and grandchildren fought for the Third Reich. By now, anyone who had papers to return to Germany has already gone — unless, of course, they had reason to stay away.

Obama's Ground Game

When Obama wins the nomination sometime in the next couple of months it'll be because of stories like this.

Obama's Texas Two-Step
In the same cluster of messages came one from the Obama campaign. It was notifying me that they were setting up "Precinct Captain" meetings in locations all over the state and asked if I'd be willing to attend one and volunteer for the campaign. …

I visited the Precinct Captain website and to my great surprise, I found 25 meetings scheduled all over the state, including such remote locations as Matamoros way down on the border with Mexico. There were, in fact, meetings scheduled in two border communities as well as FIVE locations in San Antonio, and one all the way out in El Paso, which told me right away that the campaign was not conceding a single Hispanic vote to Hillary.

West Texas, which is almost always forgotten in national political campaigns, had meetings scheduled in Lubbock, Abilene, Midland-Odessa, and of course, El Paso.

"So this is the much-vaunted Obama ground operation," I mused.
…
Abilene, Texas is, literally, one of the most conservative cities in the country. Back last summer, when the Obama campaign staged its "Walk for Change," I was able to find only two people signed up for the walk in Abilene--so few that the campaign didn't send any materials.

So I was more than curious to see how many people might attend an organizational meeting for the Obama campaign in Abilene.

The meeting was held in a nice hotel, in a room that seated about 25 people, but by the time I got there, all the seats were full. They sent out for more chairs, but by the time they got back, there were too many people for the extra chairs they'd brought. Finally, a small crowd stood at the rear of the room and the overflow spilled out into the corridor.
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Having read Mayhill Fowler's excellent post, "Clinton's Texas Ground Game Plunges Into Chaos," I can say that, contrasted with what I've observed on the ground with the Obama campaign--there's a whole helluva lot of difference between conducting a campaign from the top-down, and doing one from the ground-up.

Media Whore For President '08

Oh, brother, this guy again.

Nader for White House '08?
(WASHINGTON) — Ralph Nader could be poised for another third party presidential campaign.

Zeese said he could only guess what Nader might do, but added: "Obviously, I don't think (Meet the Press host) Tim Russert would have him on for no reason."

Last month, Nader began an exploratory presidential campaign and launched a Web site that promises to fight "corporate greed, corporate power, corporate control."

Nader's appearance on Meet the Press was announced Friday in an e-mail message from Nader's exploratory campaign. The message from "The Nader Team" urges supporters to tell friends and family to watch the show and requests online contributions.

Must we really suffer through another round of this guy's insufferable arrogance and narcissism? (Well, at least he won't have near the effect he had in FL in '00.)

Goal Posts Meet Mover

Wow, now we learn that along with caucus states, small states, red states, Southern states, Western states, etc., etc., Texas doesn't really count either! I can't believe she's continuing this line of spin, and in a state that's yet to cast its vote. 

In this interview with Texas Monthly, Sen. Clinton explains why Michigan and Florida are important, but, Texas—one of her "firewall" states mind you—not so much.

Choice cut:

I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are.

All I can figure is that her internal polling for the state must look pretty bleak. So she's now expecting to lose Texas and is laying the expectations groundwork to keep going even after losing there.

The Penultimate Debate

Some thoughts on the tonight's debate:

• I thought it was going to a snoozer, but it turned out to be one of the more interesting debates yet. It got off to a tedious start with them both repeating repeating familiar lines and arguments. The sparring over health care offered was the closest they came to a real disagreement and they fought it to an irritating draw. Nothing new was learned substantively, but it was interesting to see the candidates modulate or fine tune their messages. 

• There was nothing here to shift the dynamics of the race. Because so much is already known about their positions and records, Obama would have had to screw up in a catastrophic way or Hillary would have had to wound him somehow. Neither thing happened. 

• The absence of Tim Russert, Brian Williams, and Chris Matthews was a breath of fresh air. It's good to see what a debate looks like with adults asking questions. 

• The silly plagiarism charge was finally put to bed tonight. Obama handled the issue pitch perfectly and Hillary one-line zinger "that's change you can Xerox" went over so poorly the crowd booed. Then, later she used lines from both Bill's 1992 campaign and Edwards' 2008 campaign in her touching and redeeming response to the final question of the night. 

• Obama looked and sounded his most confident and presidential yet. He's moving between his broad themes and specific proposals with greater and greater ease. The poetry and the prose are becoming one. And he brilliantly parries Clinton's attacks, turning them back on her. He's definitely a natural. And he'll make a great president. 

• Hillary was her usual masterful self when it came to the facts and details. But she also came across as more gracious and genuinely humble than I've seen her. Her final answer was actually well delivered and heartfelt and deserved the standing O it received. You know, if we saw more of this Hillary throughout the campaign she might not be in the position she's in now. 

The Xerox comment aside, Hillary's graciousness was nice to see. It may be a strategic move to generate sympathy a la NH, but I get the sense that she's beginning to understand the writing on the wall. She's starting to see that she's not going to win the nomination and has two choices: relentlessly attack Obama and risk having a too-damaged general candidate to win in November or begin a graceful exit. My sense is that she's made the second choice. And that's to her great credit.  

I Want The Man To Hope All Over Me

That is my favorite line of this election cycle so far. It's from a funny article by Joel Stein at the Los Angeles Times.

It's embarrassing to be among the fanatics of a relatively mainstream presidential candidate.
You are embarrassing yourselves. With your "Yes We Can" music video, your "Fired Up, Ready to Go" song, your endless chatter about how he's the first one to inspire you, to make you really feel something—it's as if you're tacking photos of Barack Obama to your locker, secretly slipping him little notes that read, "Do you like me? Check yes or no." Some of you even cry at his speeches. If I were Obama, and you voted for me, I would so never call you again.

Obamaphilia has gotten creepy. I couldn't figure out if the two canvassers who came to my door Sunday had taken Ecstasy or were just fantasizing about an Obama presidency, but I feared they were going to hug me. Scarlett Johansson called me twice, asking me to vote for him. She'd never even called me once about anything else. Not even to see The Island.

What the Cult of Obama doesn't realize is that he's a politician. Not a brave one taking risky positions like Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich, but a mainstream one. He has not been firing up the Senate with stirring Cross-of-Gold-type speeches to end the war. He's a politician so soft and safe, Oprah likes him. There's talk about his charisma and good looks, but I know a nerd when I see one. The dude is Urkel with a better tailor.

All of this is clear to me, and yet I have fallen victim. I was at an Obama rally in Las Vegas last month, hanging at the rope line afterward in the cold night desert air, just to see him up close, to make sure he was real. I'd never heard a politician talk so bluntly, calling U.S. immigration policy "scapegoating" and "demagoguery." I'd never had even a history teacher argue that our nation's history is a series of brave people changing others' minds when things were on the verge of collapse. I want the man to hope all over me.

That's Super

Well, it looks like the nation's youngest super-delegate (and the youngest person ever elected to the DNC) has finally tipped his hand. Jason Rae, 21, has been on several cable talk shows in the past couple of weeks as a sort of freak-show example of the super-delegate process. He's actually a pretty bright, thoughtful kid, and held his cards very close to his chest in regards to who he'd be supporting. Well, since his home state of Wisconsin voted on Tuesday, he's made his decision public. Here's his statement:

Friends--

I wanted to write to you today, before you see it in the news, to inform you that I have officially endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States. This was a difficult decision for me to make. While I had every intention of remaining neutral in the race, Tuesdayʼs primary results showed a huge movement in Wisconsin, a movement of which I want to be a part.

Back in 2004, I ran for the Democratic National Committee because I wanted to represent Americaʼs next generation of voters. Well, yesterday, that generation spoke. According to CNN exit polls, 73% of 18-to-24 year olds turned out in support of Senator Obama. That is an outstanding number. But it wasnʼt only young people turning out; people all over Wisconsin turned out overwhelming to support Senator Obama. I have a responsibility to listen to the voices that I am representing.

I do firmly believe that we have two qualified, talented candidates seeking the nomination. However, when I see one candidate energizing a new generation like Senator Obama is, I cannot help but be impressed and inspired. As I think about who I want to lead our country and party forward, I cannot think of another candidate to do that than Senator Barack Obama.

I just wanted to take a moment to share this note with you. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions, comments, or concerns. All my best to you for a wonderful day.

Respectfully,
Jason

Ewwww...

Either Obama's campaign needn't spend a dime on negative advertising...or they already have.

Watch at your peril. Really.

Campaign Snark

Again from TNR's The Plank.

This just goes to show that Obama only wins in states that hold contested elections. Sure, he wins big in caucus states, he wins big in primary states, he wins big when turnout is low, and he wins big with record-high turnout. But what the Obama-worshipping media is overlooking is that in each of the 25 state contests Obama has won so far, his name appeared on the ballot. It's time to stop giving Obama a pass on this critical issue.

Remember, if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama's name will not be on the ballot in November. And only Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she can win when Obama's name is not on the ballot. In fact, she's undefeated in contests where Obama is not on the ballot, making her clearly the more electable general-election candidate.

A Great Awakening? II

From The New Republic's The Plank

Legitimately Huge Turnout in Hawaii
As previously noted, Hawaii caucus turnout has never been above 5,000.

The Obama camp's pie-in-the-sky prediction was 18,000.

Final tally? 37,247

A Great Awakening?

This story is just incredible. 

Thousands of African-American students marched through a dangerous county yesterday to protest a decision that would have had only one polling station in the entire county for early voting. 

From what I'm reading in comments threads, Waller County is a real charming place. The kind of place where cops would stop and harass white kids for having rock station bumper stickers on their cars. The kind of place black students would drive 50+ miles out of their way to go around to get to their destination for fear of being pulled over (and then?).

Anyway, by itself it's a pretty amazing story, but as a piece with everything else that's happening across the country right now, it's huge. 

Am I being foolishly poetic or is there really something big stirring in this land?

Read this post from Burnt Orange Report. 

Thousands of Prairie View Students March 7.3 Miles to Vote

Early voting starts today in Texas. In Waller County, a primarily rural county about 60 miles outside Houston, the county made the decision to offer only one early voting location: at the County Courthouse in Hempstead, TX, the county seat.

Prairie View A&M students organized to protest the decision, because they felt it hindered their ability to vote. For background, Prairie View A&M is one of Texas'

 historically Black universities. It has a very different demographic feel than the rest of the county. There has been a long history of dispute over what the students feel is disenfranchisement. There was a lot of outrage in 2006, when students felt they were unfairly denied the right to vote when their registrations somehow did not get processed.

According to an article in today's Houston Chronicle:

Waller County has faced numerous lawsuits involving voting rights in the past 30 years and remains under investigation by the Texas Attorney General's Office based on complaints by local black leaders.

 Those allegations, concerning the November 2006 general election, related to voting machine failures, inadequate staffing and long delays for voting results.

"I was angry after registering to vote in the 2006 election only to be turned away at the voting booth," said sophomore Dee Dee Williams.

So what are the students doing?
1000 students, along with an additional 1000 friends and supporters, are this morning walking the 7.3 miles between Prairie View and Hempstead in order to vote today. According to the piece I saw on the news (there's no video up, so I can't link to it), the students plan to all vote today. There are only 2 machines available at the courthouse for early voting, so they hope to tie them up all day and into the night.

And this from the Houston Chronicle:

Thousands march in Prairie View for voting rights
PRAIRIE VIEW — More than 1,000 Prairie View A&M University students and supporters marched seven miles to the polls on Tuesday to protest the lack of an early voting place on campus for the March 4 election.
…

Students, local leaders, civil rights activists and elected officials walked from the campus to the Waller County Courthouse in Hempstead carrying "Register to Vote" signs. The majority wore black shirts with the slogan, "It is 2008. We will vote!"

Following After the march, some students stood in a long line to cast their ballots on the first day of early voting, while others filled out new voter registration cards in a building across from the courthouse. Early voting ended at about 5:30 p.m. Tuesday, and some waited for five hours to vote.

And here's video footage:

Finances

Courtesy of one of the best blogs covering this election cycle, The Field, here are the candidates' FEC financial reports from January. 

Obama: Raised $36.1 million, spent $30.5 million.
Clinton: Raised $13.9 million, spent $28.5 million

The Underperformer

A good assessment of the Clinton campaign's failings from Ezra Klein over at The American Prospect.

Choice cut:

But a funny thing happened on the way to the nomination. Obama's campaign, in Iowa, South Carolina, and elsewhere, made good on their promises to excite new voters. Additionally, the Obama campaign ran a disciplined, forward-looking operation. It methodically organized—and, as a result, dominated—the caucus states; it predicted early on that the contest would drag beyond Feb. 5 and was thus better prepared in the recent primaries; the campaign ran a tight ship with little dissension, few gaffes, and no damaging leaks.

Clinton's campaign has done exactly the opposite. Aside from an important win in New Hampshire, she has not overperformed in any state. Tactically, her strategists have made a series of massive errors: They were so stung by their loss in Iowa that they largely turned away from caucuses, a disastrous mistake as the race became more dependent on delegates; they thought the election would be over early on and were unprepared to go past Feb. 5, which is why her organizing in post-Super Tuesday states has been so poor; they appear, only now, to be thinking through the implications of Texas' hybrid primary/caucus system—and Texas is a must-win. No one thought to dispatch an intern to ask the state's Democratic Party, how would March 5 work? How savvy of a campaign operation could this be?

The Seas Of Cheese

Here's the Shatman covering british band Pulp's "Common People."

Here's the original in case you're interested.

P.S. Any post titled The Seas of Cheese should very well have been inaugurated with something—anything—by William Shatner. My apologies for the oversight.

A Taste Of Things To Come?

Some back story on the senate relationship between Obama and McCain from Josh at TPM.

The gist was that the antagonism between these two men (at least from McCain's side) isn't something cooked up to order for this campaign. This goes all the way back to when Obama showed up in the senate. And it seems to come down to a sense of 'I've been working at this my whole life and who the f--k is this Obama kid?'
…
…I remembered they'd had an earlier tussle over campaign finance reform. And I found this post from early 2006, which has this McCain quote:

"I'm embarrassed to admit that after all these years in politics, I failed to interpret your previous assurances as typical rhetorical gloss routinely used in politics to make self-interested partisan posturing appear more noble. I understand how important the opportunity to lead your party's efforts to exploit this issue must seem to a freshman senator, and I hold no hard feelings over your earlier disingenuousness."

The passage exudes a delicious tension because you can feel the gritted teeth held barely in check by the ornateness of the sentences. A senator doesn't get ginned up like that for normal political boilerplate. It's got to come from some deep touched chord. And the same can be said for the attacks McCain is rolling out today.

What Desperation Looks Like

More shenanigans from Team Clinton. Courtesy of Political Punch.

Clinton Campaign Sets Up Website to Push to Change the Rules
This morning brings the news that the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, has launched a new website where they are announcing how they are officially preparing to make the case that the rules of the Democratic nomination process should be changed.

Among many "facts" they declare are some accurate ones, such as the idea that superdelegates, which in true nomenclatural dexterity they now term "automatic delegates" "are expected to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and the Democratic Party."

But then comes this juicy non-fact:

"FACT: Florida and Michigan should count, both in the interest of fundamental fairness and honoring the spirit of the Democrats' 50-state strategy."

That's not a fact, that's an opinion.

And it's clear evidence (not that there was any mystery about it) that the Clinton campaign is trying to change the rules in the middle of the game.

Clinton's own senior adviser, Harold Ickes, voted as a member of the DNC committee to not recognize these two state delegations because they violated the rules of the primary scheduling process. Now as a Clinton campaign representative he's making the case that they should count.
…
The Clinton camp is now calling 2208 "the number required for a candidate to secure the nomination with Florida and Michigan included."

But that's not the number.

According to the DNC, the number is 2025. And Florida and Michigan don’t get included.

The three chairs of the Democratic Convention Credentials Committee, which will decide this Michigan and Florida morass, all worked in the administration of Bill Clinton: Former Secretary of Labor Alexis Herman, Social Security Administration associate commissioner James Roosevelt Jr., and White House travel consultant Eliseo Roques-Arroyo, as noted yesterday by the Washington Times.

More and more, this reminds me of the Florida recount.

Don't like the rules? Change the rules.

Count every vote -- except the ones for the other guy.