Saturday, October 11, 2008

It's Happening, People, In Real Time

Recently, I've abandoned my safe, cautiously optimistic stance for the riskier full-throated glee in re: the election. I've suspected since February that Obama would win this thing and—given the type of year it is—possibly in a landslide. Well, possibility gives way to probability with each passing day. Here are the latest causes for cheer:

• Obama pops above 50 in Florida.
• His Ohio numbers look good, too. 
• McCain's playing defense West Virginia.West Virginia!
• Purple state senators are distancing themselves from him.
Troopergate report findings and all of the other Bible Spice problems. (Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish has been at the forefront of taking Palin on and his Odd Lies Of Sarah Palin series of posts are not to be missed. He's up to at least 17 documentable falsehoods.)
• Xenophobic, guilt-by-association attacks are failing.
• National poll averages from Pollster, 538, and RealClearPolitics (a rightward leaning site)

It's true anything can happen and dynamics change relatively quickly in politics. But sometimes trends are too entrenched to be turned around quickly and all of the momentum is with Obama and down-ticket Democrats this year. It may still end up being a close race, but it's shaping up to be a rout.

Update: McCain's on defense in other Red states, as well. 
Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- John McCain is circling the wagons.

The Republican presidential candidate, with few prospects in Democratic-leaning states, is struggling to hold on to the states George W. Bush won in 2004.

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