Of course, making predictions about politics is a fool's errand. Anyone who's paid more attention than a passing glance to electoral politics know that the cliche is true: A week/month/half-year (take your pick) is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen between now and November which would upend my assessment.
But there's no glory without risk, and if I kept my prediction to myself, I'd hardly have credibility to crow should it turn out correct. Who'd believe me without proof? :)
So, now I'm on record with it. Come November 5, I'll either be crowing until my friends pin me down and stuff a sock in my mouth or I'll end up with a four-egg omelette on my face. It's a risk I'm willing to take.
Why? Every indication I look at points to it. The latest being this from ABCNews:
Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the last year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And 31 percent approve of Bush's job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove.That's 82%! Not at all surprising given this train wreck of an administration, but still a big number. Combined with other factors (an unusually large number Republicans resigning, several who aren't retiring with weak reelect numbers, the huge surge in Democratic registrations, a weak Repub presidential candidate, a strong Dem presidential candidate with historic organizational power and gobs of cash, the huge influx of young voters, and a growing progressive movement), this number bodes really poorly for Republicans. And given Obama's strengths as a candidate, I think his win will be big rather than close.
* Unlike here, when I merely dipped my toe in the water.
Update: Apparently, I'm not the only one to notice this. Matt Stoller over at OpenLeft agrees:
Six Signs Democrats Are Going to RompGo check out the whole post which is much more detailed than mine.
The new numbers from the Washington Post/ABC Poll are remarkable. They show an electorate that hates Republicans, has pretty much made up its mind, is comfortable with Obama and his message, and is paying attention. Let's look at some of the core macro-trends.…
Update II: Democrat Travis Childers just won a special election seat in a heavily Republican Mississippi congressional district. That makes three big turnovers in deep red regions in the past few months: last Saturday, Donald J. Cazayoux won in Baton Rouge, LA, tonight's win in MI, and, of course, the biggest grab, Bill Foster taking former House speaker Denny Hastert's seat in Michigan back in March.
This is going to be a big year for Democrats.