What The Hell Happened?

E.J. Dionne on what happened to the Clinton campaign.

How 'Inevitable' Got Outmaneuvered
Last fall, she was the "inevitable" nominee whose "machine" would raise scads of cash and push her to an early victory. She demonstrated poise and knowledge in debates, and party leaders lined up behind her, fearful of missing her fast-moving train.

But this narrative was flawed from the beginning. Her campaign has suffered from profound organizational failures, small mistakes that took on larger import, and miscalculations that have put her in a position where to survive, she must defeat Barack Obama in both Texas and Ohio next month.

The major flaw in the early story line is that there never was a Clinton machine in the sense of a well-populated organization skilled at turning out votes. Clinton campaigns have always been top-down operations focused on message and media. The Clintons have never lived in a world of precinct captains.

Obama, by contrast, was shaped by his early work as an organizer for the Industrial Areas Foundation and his political life in Chicago, a place where people still talk about ward committeemen and harbor memories of something that was called "The Organization."

He's right that she's been outmaneuvered and has run a terrible campaign, of course, but I caution that it's still too early to count Clinton out. She knows how to fight hard. This won't be over until it's over, which means a concession speech from one of the two candidates. Obama's got the wind at his back, but he hasn't crossed the finish line yet.